Quantitative Crypto Options Strategies

Ep 141: TerraM Token Defends $2—Is the Trading Bot the Next Catalyst?

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On May 1st, 2026, the TerraM token traded at $2.02, down -6.48% week over week. On-chain activity was minimal, with two buys and one sell. 

The sell-off actually improved liquidity in the pool, and through active treasury operations we managed to keep the TerraM token above $2, which is a strong outcome.

If selling pressure remains limited in the coming weeks, we expect the TerraM token to reach the $2.20–$2.30 range by month-end, supported by ongoing weekly buybacks from the fund and continued liquidity injections.

During the week total TerraM liquidity on the Raydium pool increased to  4.55% of total supply

Our broader objective remains to expand liquidity coverage to 10%, with a near-term milestone of reaching 5%. We are quite optimistic reaching 5% level by the end of May. 

Ethereum strategy

Week over week, the Ethereum strategy delivered a small +1.04% gain. Ethereum bouncing around $2,250 - $2,300 levels. 

This week, we closed some capped covered calls to free up capital, while selling longer-dated puts to generate additional premium. Our target was $125 in options income, but we fell slightly short. Reaching that level next week will likely be more challenging without taking on additional tail risk.

From the all-time high in September 2025, the fund is still down -65.24%. While YTD performance stands at -24.35%, slightly underperforming ETH itself, which is down -23.32% over the same period.

Our short-term goal is to return the strategy to positive YTD performance; from there, the focus shifts to recovering and ultimately surpassing previous all-time highs. In an ideal scenario, the strategy should also outperform ETH itself.

During the week, the ETH Strategy generated $114 in options premiums, reducing our effective ETH break-even price to $1,127. By week’s end, the strategy held 1.74 ETH with an average acquisition price of $1,974. 

Current options positions:

  • 1.4 ETH MAY 29, 2026 2,100 Covered Call
  • 1.5 ETH MAY 8 2026 2250 Cash-Secured Put
  • 0.1 ETH MAY 29, 2026 2,200 Covered Call
  • 0.1 ETH MAY 29, 2026 2,400 Covered Call
  • 0.4 ETH JUN 29, 2026 2,100 Cash-Secured Put

From the options premium received and by closing long 0.4 ETH position we reduced margin debt to –$1,201.  The immediate objective is to bring margin back to zero without selling any additional ETH

At an average weekly premium of $114, it would take roughly 10 weeks to eliminate the remaining margin balance — targeting mid-July.

Solana Strategy

The Solana strategy declined for a second consecutive week, with a more pronounced drop of -5.09% week-over-week. NAV per unit settled at $0.50, as SOL retraced to around $84 per coin.

By the end of the week, we increased our long spot position to 62.07 SOL, with a buy price at $156.79 and break-even price of $138.24. With Solana trading at $84 at the time of writing, the position is  significantly underwater. 

During the week, we collected $12.06 in option premium by selling covered calls expiring on May 8.

Because the position is currently underwater, our flexibility is limited. To generate meaningful premium, we had to sell calls below our average entry price, effectively capping part of the upside recovery. 

Overall our Solana Strategy YTD performance is -32.55%,  just slightly underperforming SOL itself, which is down -32.46% over the same period.

Depending on market sentiment next week, we are considering dollar-cost averaging into SOL to lower our average entry price.

Bitcoin Strategy

This week we allocated 10% of the total options income from the Ethereum strategy to purchase spot BTC, increasing our holdings to 0.00083751 BTC

It will take several months before this position becomes noticeable, but we like the start. After the ninth week since the launch of Bitcoin strategy it is up +5.23%, Given the fund’s size, the impact is negligible.

TerraM ETH 1 DTE Trading Bot

Last week, we revisited one of the early cornerstones of the Terramatris strategy: 1 DTE trades. This approach proved highly effective in 2023–2024, before we shifted focus toward weekly and monthly expiries.

With improved tooling, we’ve begun building a more systematic trading bot. While it’s not “AI-driven” in the traditional sense, it’s developed with AI assistance and operates on predefined rules and human-designed logic. Over time, we plan to expand its capabilities, potentially incorporating machine learning to improve trade selection—but that remains a future step.

Currently, the bot scans 1 DTE options on Bybit, ranks opportunities, and automatically enters high-probability trades aimed at expiring worthless (targeting very low delta positions). Execution is fully automated.

Early results are encouraging, with a 100% win rate over the first three trading days. That said, the sample size is too small to draw conclusions, and we’ll need more time to properly evaluate performance.

We’ve allocated $100 in initial capital to the bot and plan to add $25 weekly from Ethereum strategy premiums until it reaches $1,000. This gradual scaling gives us time to test, refine, and validate the system before considering more aggressive capital deployment if results hold.

Bottom line:

Despite continued drawdowns—particularly in SOL—the fund is stabilizing through options income, improving liquidity, and disciplined capital allocation; near-term focus remains on reducing margin, cautiously averaging into weak positions, and rebuilding toward positive YTD performance